Trump, America First, and Venezuela

john-bolton-notepad-indexnewyorkpost

Trump, America First, and Venezuela

America First, as Trump proclaimed it during his campaign for the presidency in 2016, sounded good to some Americans (MAGA). Trump promised to put America’s interests first. He railed against all our allies who, according to his reckoning, had let America pick up the tab for far too many military operations over too many years. His followers, the Trumpers, also were led to believe that Trump intended to take care of the forgotten Americans who had lost their jobs to outsourcing and industrial migration.

To give some credit to Trump, he has tried to do this. Someone said on the news just today that the problem Trump has is that he is trying to bring back the America of 20 or 30 years ago and that the world does not do business the same way now (not an exact quote). Trump does seem out of step with economic changes that are most likely irreversible. He tried to save the Carrier plant in Indiana. That fell through. He tried to help Harley Davidson but made things worse. He celebrated when FoxConn said it would bring 13,000 jobs to Wisconsin, but today’s news suggests that that will not happen. Of course he also stepped all over his attempts to keep jobs in America with his tariffs.

Trump said he would deport illegal immigrants who were taking American jobs and using American benefits. Trump backed himself into a corner when he promised a wall that many think is a waste of money and which will not address the real reasons for high numbers of folks living here without proper documents. Despite the fact that just building a wall is an oversimplification of a more complex problem, to his “cult” members it said not only America First, but Americans First.

America First is a slogan that was not greeted with cheers by many other Americans who did not end up being followers of Trump. It harkens back to things that Hitler promised the German people that lead to World War II and the murder of 6 million Jews. It echoed the words of Nazi sympathizers in American who liked to repeat the slogan ‘America über alles’, because it echoed Hitler’s slogan for Germany. There are far too many authoritarian and genocidal memories to make this stance palatable to Americans who remember the history of the slogan. Did the President know about the connections to Nazism? His family immigrated to America from Eastern Europe so he probably did. It doesn’t matter if he makes the connection or not, and we cannot read his mind, but it matters to many Americans who don’t like the slogan and don’t like the isolationist positioning that goes with it.

But this America First policy may have a lot to do with speculations about our future activities in Venezuela and with the drumbeats of war that are sounding, at least in the media. It happens that John Bolton, for one reason or another, did not hide his notebook from the press. The list on his legal pad had the mysterious entry 5000+ troops to Columbia. Guess where Columbia is? It’s in South America, bordered by Panama, Venezuela, Brazil, Ecuador and Peru.

This is John Bolton we are talking about, a man with a reputation as a war monger. If his list has an item that says 5000+ troops to Columbia, media sees that as a possible step towards intervening in Venezuela. Venezuela is an oil rich nation, but Nicolás Maduro, dictator-in-charge is either not good with economics (at all), or is a big time thief because his people, living in what was once a thriving economy and what is now a failed state, are starving. Oil is a commodity that has fallen prey to a set of market circumstances that have hurt its value. There is a lot of competition in the oil market these days and price per barrel rates have vacillated accordingly. Natural gas is readily available because of fracking and is cleaner to burn than oil, so that is helping to drive down the price of oil. Perhaps Maduro is not completely to blame but has still proved to be incompetent.

When Trump was running for the presidency he often chided America for leaving Iraq without taking over the oil and annexing those sites for America. He attributed the fact that we left the oil wells for Iraq (or perhaps ISIS) to the wimpy behavior of President Obama, who took the last troops out of Iraq. It appears that Trump would fit in well back in the Age of Imperialism.

It is not as if modern America has never been guilty of taking advantage of another nation; we have meddled often and deeply in the name of both democracy and capitalism. Since World War II many nations give space to American military bases, berths to our ships, and hangers for our planes, and not always out of the kindness of their hearts. But it’s not easy to steal oil  or annex oil wells. There is the problem of manning these operations, even if ownership is not disputed, the problems of shipping the oil, and the problems of optics, since the media sees all.

So, although Trump’s eyes may light up at the thought of all that oil, that is unlikely to be the reason that we are backing Juan Guaidó as the man to take Maduro’s place. He is the man the people of Venezuela want, but so far Maduro controls the military.

Perhaps the reason for tiptoeing so close to the regime change line has to do with Trump’s passion to stem migration from Venezuela and neighboring countries. People have been flooding out of Venezuela. Many have gone to Chili and Columbia. Current wisdom advises Trump that if he wants to stem migration he needs to attack the problems people are facing in South America from bad leaders, to violent gangs, to changes in climate that have made food production unpredictable. Add these problems to those that are plaguing oil markets and you have a perfect storm. People cannot stay where life has no quality, where food is scarce, and where their children are either starving, or forced to join a gang or die.

Trump’s America First stand has him withdrawing from international entanglements around the globe. He took us out of the Paris Climate Accord, decided not to join the Trans Pacific Partnership. He wants to leave NATO and the UN. His isolationist tendencies argue against American involvement in the affairs of South American nations. However, if propping up South American economies and cleaning up violent gangs will end the caravans of people so traumatized that they can’t wait to leave home, if it will end the lines of “undesirables” seeking asylum in America, then sending troops to Columbia sounds like something Trump’s people might suggest (or that Trump might suggest). Trump does not want brown people, people who don’t speak English, or people who are poor. He says there is no room for these people in America. He wants a wall to keep them out. But he may be hedging his bets on the wall by supporting a little regime change and a little military action to reverse the decline of certain South American or Central American nations.

Perhaps that cryptic note on Bolton’s tablet meant that sending 5000+ troops to Venezuela is imminent, especially since the first thing on the list had to do with Afghanistan, but experts say that sending troops into a large failed state like Venezuela would be like getting America involved in another Vietnam. Experts also tell Trump that a wall is not what we need to solve the problems of migrants who enter America illegally. However, once Trump decides that he know best, all the expert advice in the world will not sway Trump. He is busy listening to his gut, which he tells us he trusts more than he trusts experts.

Photo Credit: From a Google Image Search – New York Post

This is a view from the cheap seats.

 

 

Know Your Dictators 3

Nicolas Maduro big Sky News

Venezuela

Nicolás Maduro

 

Hugo Chavez launched the “Bolivarian revolution” in 1998

The economy was good

High oil prices

There were social benefits for his constituents

He abused his electoral popularity

  1. Rewrote constitution in his favor
  2. Created paramilitary (“Bolivarian circles”)
  3. Stacked the courts with loyalists
  4. Stacked electoral council with loyalists
  5. Controlled state-owned oil firm
  6. Stifled free media
  7. Secured favorable loans from China
  8. New military equipment and energy deals from Russia

Chavez died  – March 2013 with an authoritarian model well in place.

Nicolás Maduro was his hand-picked successor and he won the election barely one month later.

He consolidated power.

He ran into trouble with

  1. Mounting foreign debt
  2. Failing oil productions
  3. Increased sanctions
  4. Diplomatically isolated
  5. Faced with spreading humanitarian crisis

How will he react to these threats: his tactics against his opponents will harden and there will be an intensified reliance on China and Russia.

What can anyone do about this?

“It’s tricky,” says Ted Piccone, senior fellow in foreign policy at Brookings Institution, who wrote this article.

“Venezuela’s latest electoral affair only worsened the country’s slide from a relatively stable middle-income democracy to a socialist authoritarian system stricken with hyperinflation, rising poverty, declining oil production and record levels of violent crime.”

Venezuela’s path to despotism and despair went something like this:

  1. Increasing executive control of the country’s democratic institutions
  2. Gross mismanagement of the oil-dominated economy
  3. Worsening conditions of the 30 million citizens
  4. Hundreds of thousands have left the country
  5. Food and medicine shortages
  6. Lack of decent jobs
  7. Terrible crime and political repression

Economic decline was directly proportional to increased authoritarianism

Washington can’t help because Trump favors military interventions, but after decades of regime change that won’t work.

Mr, Piccone suggests:

Expanding the list of targeted economic sanctions.

Try to force Maduro to come to the negotiating table

Mediation with Venezuela’s moderates assisted by the UN

Deliver humanitarian assistance to malnourished and sick

Provide economic incentives if Maduro is gone

https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2018/05/22/613116319/what-the-world-needs-to-do-after-venezuelas-vote

Nicolas Maduro.flag big Venezuela Analysis

Writing in The Guardian, Reynaldo Trombetta, a Venezuelan journalist says,

“It has never been clearer that Nicolás Maduro…is a dictator.”

“We are not dealing with an authoritarian government that, like Chavez’s, still managed to loosely colour between the lines of democracy and the rule of law. This is a textbook dictatorship, with assassinations, torture, and sexual abuse of political prisoners, violent censorship of the press, and a sociopathic strategy to use the hunger of its own citizens as a tool for political control. So, in the face of all this, what can we do to help restore democracy in Venezuela?”

His suggestions:

Give up on the idea of a popular uprising or a coup

Embrace the opposition

Avoid unilateral actions

Strengthen the ‘smart sanctions’ regime

Support international justice

Engage with China, Russia and Iran (oh, easy peasy?)

Use all this pressure to make free and fair elections possible

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/23/venezuela-dictator-democracy-nicolas-maduro-venezuelans

 

Cuba and Venezuela have developed some close ties but neither can help the other’s economy right now.

More sources:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/rumors-of-war-with-the-us-run-rampant-in-venezuela

https://nyti.ms/2Lk0WfI

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/02/opinion/cuba-venezuela-socialism.html

Photo credits: From a Google Image Search, first photo news.sky.com, second photo, Venezuela Analysis

You can also find my articles @Tremr.app